BrExit Date set in stone?

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971

The outbreak of the Coronal Viris in WuHan porovince in Chine looks ominous and reminds me of the unresolved HIV/AID Viris which has claimed in excess of 30 million fatalities...

NEWS BREAK /INTERLUDE

Regular contribution and alternatives scheduled to return in Sept/Oct 2020

Stalemate at Westminster

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971...

The 2019 SNAP election will probably break the deadlock in parliament ... I suspect that the voters will side with Boris Johnson and his simple but misleading slogan "Lets get BrExit done"... I simply cannot imagine that Labour is in a position to win this election with Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and "Prime Minister in Waiting"..

If Boris Johnson succeeds and wins a mandate of his own, as leader of the British Conservative party, we are not out of the woods yet... The clouds gathering on the horizon are preventing a closer look - the British Government should sent a few recognacence aircraft and allow the House of Commons time and space to scrutinise the facts and figures...

Gazing into the Chrystal Ball

In a moment of indiscretion, Aernout Fabius is prepared to throw caution through the nearest window. His knowledge and experience relates to his journey as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and United Kingdom Tax Resident since 1971.

In memory of the 1970s, when the Three-Day Week was one of several measures introduced in the United Kingdom by the Edward Heath lead Conservative government to conserve electricity, in response to the effects of the oil embargo and industrial action by coal miners.

What happens if:

(A)
Boris Johnson wins a majority on 12th December 2019?

Not a clean break?

and many years of detailed and time consuming BrExit negotiations... 

It takes a very clever carpenter 
to create a square pin for a round hole 
without some slip/slide administrative vulnerability!

 ■■ Boris Johnson's High Risk Policy ■■ 

Until I have met (interviewed) Mr Johnson or David Frost (former CEO of London Chamber of Commerce) it is only fair that I avoid a one sided point of view.

BrExit was a necessary process, because neither the Conservative Government or Her Majesty's loyal opposition (the Labour Party) were prepared for the Vote Leave victory and the subsequent tumoil for quick and easy answers. We now know that the referendum and subsequent BrExit preparation fell well short of the mark and created chaos and substantial differences of opinion at every level of British society!

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Running out of time?

35 days and counting 

Current BrExit Expiry date:

31st October 2019

Risk and reward?

The objective is to stabelise the United Kingdom and protect its economic prosperity...

Heading for a lose-lose scenario?

If the United Kingdom crashes without an acceptable transition period, the UK will drop out of Zone Two membership  and become a Zone 5 "Third Country", terminating EU Membership privileges and risks losing access to all existing trade deals and other means of European co-operation ... 

Are there alternatives to stabelise the BrExit process?

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971...

Looking forward

The solution has been severely clouded by political grand standing

Majority: 1,265,501

12,922,659 did not vote

Your guess is as good as mine!

The BrExit seen from a different angle. Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and a Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since September 1971...

The Supreme Court ruling

Today's unanimous ruling by the British Supreme Court confirms the authority of Parliament and allows normal business to resume at the Palace of Westminster.

The British Judiciary has simply defined the boundaries between the authority and functions of the British Parliament and the British Government.

Is this the end of the BrExit process?

How will the British electorate react in a General Election? 

Editors comment
Prime Minister Boris Johnston appears unrepentant. He has been chastised by parliament and the Supreme Court. Fasten your seatbelts...

The Supreme Court decides unanimously. Welcome to the personal and private blog where Aernout Fabius shares knowledge and please remember that my opinion is my own and not intended to cause offence.

Johmson meets Juncker in Luxembourg

What is the progress and are there any alternatives?

Is is not clear what Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning and he seems alarmingly obsessed with secrecy. From the start the European Union executives have been very consistent... 

Frustration in Europe is palpable because the United Kingdom is not communicating clearly with their European counterparts in Brussels!

Editors Comment:

During the early stages the British Conservative party moved a motion at Westminster to accept the outcome of the June 2016 referendum and failed to arrange crossparty talks  in the National Interest and could have considered the value of a Royal Commission.

Boris Johnson visits Jean Claude Juncker in Luxembourg. Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Edinburgh Legal ruling

The highest court of Scotland has ruled that proroguing of the UK parliament is unlawful. We now await the result of the case before the United Kingdom Supreme Court....

The Choice - It is entirely upto the British Government and Parliament to indicate the direction of travel. |More a.s.a.p.| 

Editor's comment

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971!

This BrExit decision and withdrawla agreement is taking far too long.... the UK's Exit without a deal has been protected and placed on the UK Statute book...It is not a guarantee that the European Commission and Parliament (EU27) will accept an extension without a new and practical British proposal or amendments to the withdrawal agreement ...

Apeldoorn Conference 2018

Anglo-Dutch Conference and other initiatives
Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971!

Political and International Objective(s) -  

Cross Reference - the Anglo Dutch Aperdoorn Trade conferences and active BeNeLux Union monitoring and institutional adaptability to international welfare issues.

As author of this and other correspondence I owe a duty of care to act entirely in accordance the constitutional oblgations, valid for citzens and emmigrants of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

Where do you stand?

There is far too much ill considered political rhetoric and only time will reveal the suttle stirring of common sense.

  Why not take your pick?   - being a critical euro sceptic adds value to constructive comment...

UK Government...

...the architect of self-harm?

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Britain's third unelected Prime Minister since 2007

  New BrExit Extension expires 31 October 2019  

  99 days and counting  

Mr Boris Johnson has been given leave to form a new administration. Consider8ng0 the numbers in parliament, the nee Prime Minis5er inherits a paper thin majority in the House of Commons at the Palace of Westminster.

The Micro Business Supply chains will be at the sharp end of any economic decline...

  Editor's Comment  
UK Economic and political planning has been mismanaged and I stress that Mrs Theresa May tried in every way possible to steer her Conservative party's noisy and divided opinion. Let's see if her successor can do any better without capsizing the Ship-of-State...

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Who will be Britain`s next Prime Minister?

~~

Is Britain ready for a new Conservative Prime Minister ? Who will Queen Elizabeth invite to form a new United Kingdom Government? - Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Buyer Beware - Caveat Emptor - On Thursday 25 July 2019 parliament will be in recess until 3rd September 2019 and there is also time set aside for the Party Political conference season.

Please Stand by

Mrs Theresa May resigns as Tory Leader

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971, including the structural errors and omissions caused by faulty wiring and poor government communication.

■■■
BrExit Cross Analysis and Observations, suspended from 29 March 2019 until 23 July 2019, pending the UK leadership election results for the British Conservatives and the British Liberal Democrats ■■■

Parliament..destination debate and/or Mrs May's resignation as Primus Inter Pares of the United Kingdom.

EFTA OR EEA?

The British choice - EFTA or EEA? Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

The United Kingdom (conservative government and Labour Party opposition) is in turmoil and lack a statesman type leader who is able to make the leap-of-faith to solve BrExit and kick the Article 50 process into Antarctica,  which, sadly, is already melting and probably not cool enough to cope with  BrExit's political hot heads!

The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) is a regional trade organization and free trade area consisting of four European states: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland.[3] The organization operates in parallel with the European Union (EU), and all four member states participate in the European Single Market and are part of the Schengen Area. They are not, however, party to the European Union Customs Union.

The European Economic Area (EEA) was established via the EEA Agreement in 1992, an international agreement which allows for the extension of the European Union (EU)'s single market to non-EU member parties. The EEA links the European Union member states and three EFTA states (Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway) into an internal market governed by the same basic rules. These rules aim to enable free movement of labour, goods, services, and capital within the European Single Market, including the freedom to choose residence in any country within this area. The EEA was established on 1 January 1994 upon entry into force of the EEA Agreement. The contracting parties are the European Union (EU), its member states, and the member states of the European Free Trade Association.

However, the EEA Treaty is a commercial treaty and differs from the EU Treaties in certain key respects. The EFTA members do not participate in the Common Agricultural Policy or the Common Fisheries Policy. According to Article 1 its purpose is to "promote a continuous and balanced strengthening of trade and economic relation." Unlike the EU Treaties, there is no mention of "ever closer union".

Editor's comment

Is this the same Sovereign Nation I chose as my home-away-from-home in 1971? Probably!

In September 2019 I will be 3 years from my official retirement age. As I have stated repeatedly, it is your choice. I am content in the knowledge that I will not be entitled to participate in a people's referendum.

Editor's suggestion

If the British Parliament authorises another people's referendum, a binary vote is the worst choice and unlikely to settle the leave/remain question in the short/medium term (three to five years).

Netherlands preparing for worst scenario

Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte chatting to President Tusk earlier this morning. Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Lets hope that the British Legislators show wisdom.

Mrs May's divorce agreement is awkward, but not the only deal on the Table.
The British Parliament can negotiate a longer Article 50 extension, if they can take firm control of the necessary negotiations with their counterparta in Brussel... 《more to follow》

A three month extension of Article 50 may cajole some Members of Parliament to vote through the unpopular divorce deal. It is unlikely to restore the much needed business stability and the United Kingdom will lose:

1. its 73 MEPs
2. the all important seat at the Council of Ministers' meetings
3. its share of European Civil Servants!
4. the inside track in respect of European laws and directives

Editors note 1:

At the time of writing (15 March 2019) no date has been set for the next Meaningful Vote in the British Parliament and I cannot see how or why Mrs Theresa May will gain from attend the next Brussel Council of Ministers' meeting on 21/22 March 2019.

A two year extension of Article 50 may create some breathing space, but it is not long enough to ensure any meaningful trade deals ... for the time being the British Conservative Government and the official opposition have tied their own hands behind their backs through manifesto promises and continuing short term Cherry Picking...

Editors note 2:

 Reserved! Please be patient while I await the outcome of the Council of Ministers meeting on 21/22 March 2019 and House of Commons progress...

《 British Comedy - Political satire》

Original release	25 February 1980 to 28 January 1988

Is Sir Humphrey's quirky opinion still valid today?

Ireland is forging better relationships and moving forward

Ireland is forging better relationships and moving forward. Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Irish Foreign Minister  Simon Coveney in Paris

Building relationships in an interconnected world

Sky News interview in early March 2019

The 1975 referendum debate

Previous political debate in 1975, the first UK/EU referendum. Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Two former titans of British Politics

Rt Hon Tony Benn and Rt Hon Roy Jenkins

A mature and well reasoned exchange of views by two former ministers in the Harold Wilson government.

Anne McElvoy from the Economist

BrExit Day, currently assumed 29 March 2019
22 days and counting!!

Broader scope BrExit - Let's not rush in where angels fear to tread...!

Britain in a changing Europe. Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Anne McElvoy in 2016

Brexit on WTO terms?

Are you PRO or ANTI BrExit? ... and how do you feel about a No Deal BrExit? Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Got lots of questions for Jeff,

Pretty sure he has some for me too??