BrExit Date set in stone?

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971

The outbreak of the Coronal Viris in WuHan porovince in Chine looks ominous and reminds me of the unresolved HIV/AID Viris which has claimed in excess of 30 million fatalities...

NEWS BREAK /INTERLUDE

Regular contribution and alternatives scheduled to return in Sept/Oct 2020

Stalemate at Westminster

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971...

The 2019 SNAP election will probably break the deadlock in parliament ... I suspect that the voters will side with Boris Johnson and his simple but misleading slogan "Lets get BrExit done"... I simply cannot imagine that Labour is in a position to win this election with Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader and "Prime Minister in Waiting"..

If Boris Johnson succeeds and wins a mandate of his own, as leader of the British Conservative party, we are not out of the woods yet... The clouds gathering on the horizon are preventing a closer look - the British Government should sent a few recognacence aircraft and allow the House of Commons time and space to scrutinise the facts and figures...

Gazing into the Chrystal Ball

In a moment of indiscretion, Aernout Fabius is prepared to throw caution through the nearest window. His knowledge and experience relates to his journey as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and United Kingdom Tax Resident since 1971.

In memory of the 1970s, when the Three-Day Week was one of several measures introduced in the United Kingdom by the Edward Heath lead Conservative government to conserve electricity, in response to the effects of the oil embargo and industrial action by coal miners.

What happens if:

(A)
Boris Johnson wins a majority on 12th December 2019?

Not a clean break?

and many years of detailed and time consuming BrExit negotiations... 

It takes a very clever carpenter 
to create a square pin for a round hole 
without some slip/slide administrative vulnerability!

 ■■ Boris Johnson's High Risk Policy ■■ 

Until I have met (interviewed) Mr Johnson or David Frost (former CEO of London Chamber of Commerce) it is only fair that I avoid a one sided point of view.

BrExit was a necessary process, because neither the Conservative Government or Her Majesty's loyal opposition (the Labour Party) were prepared for the Vote Leave victory and the subsequent tumoil for quick and easy answers. We now know that the referendum and subsequent BrExit preparation fell well short of the mark and created chaos and substantial differences of opinion at every level of British society!

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Benelux Economic Union explained

The Benelux Union (Dutch: Benelux Unie; French: Union Benelux; Luxembourgish: Benelux-Unioun), also known as simply Benelux, is a politico-economic union and formal international intergovernmental cooperation (http://www.benelux.int) of three neighboring states in western Europe: Belgium, Netherlands,  and Luxembourg. The name Benelux is a portmanteau formed from joining the first two or three letters of each country's name: 

Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg – and was first used to name the customs agreement that initiated the union (signed in 1944). It is now used more generally to refer to the geographic, economic and cultural grouping of the three countries.

• Customs union treaty signed	5 September 1944[2]
• Customs union in effect	1 January 1948[2]
• Renewal signed	17 June 2008
• Renewal in effect	1 January 2010

BeNeLux Economic Union Explained. Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Running out of time?

35 days and counting 

Current BrExit Expiry date:

31st October 2019

Risk and reward?

The objective is to stabelise the United Kingdom and protect its economic prosperity...

Heading for a lose-lose scenario?

If the United Kingdom crashes without an acceptable transition period, the UK will drop out of Zone Two membership  and become a Zone 5 "Third Country", terminating EU Membership privileges and risks losing access to all existing trade deals and other means of European co-operation ... 

Are there alternatives to stabelise the BrExit process?

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971...

Looking forward

The solution has been severely clouded by political grand standing

Majority: 1,265,501

12,922,659 did not vote

Your guess is as good as mine!

The BrExit seen from a different angle. Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and a Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since September 1971...

The Supreme Court ruling

Today's unanimous ruling by the British Supreme Court confirms the authority of Parliament and allows normal business to resume at the Palace of Westminster.

The British Judiciary has simply defined the boundaries between the authority and functions of the British Parliament and the British Government.

Is this the end of the BrExit process?

How will the British electorate react in a General Election? 

Editors comment
Prime Minister Boris Johnston appears unrepentant. He has been chastised by parliament and the Supreme Court. Fasten your seatbelts...

The Supreme Court decides unanimously. Welcome to the personal and private blog where Aernout Fabius shares knowledge and please remember that my opinion is my own and not intended to cause offence.

Number of MPs in parliament

57th Parliament of the United Kingdom

Lets assume that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson restores the whip to the 21 former conservatives MPs:

Best scenario: With 309 MPs, the conservative government has a minority of 3 with continuing support from the 10 DUP MPs...

Worst scenario: With 288 MPs, the conservative government has a minority of 33, assuming no confidence and supply contract from any other party...

Some of the many questions that need attention:

• Westminster's constitutional turmoil is not entirely unexpected!?
• why does the United Kingdom have an uncodified and not a written constitution?
• is it fair that the British Parliament continues while ancient convention(s) and the more recent Fixed Parliament Act cause a bottle neck?

Editor's comment

There are so many more little inconsistencies and the United Kingdom is not the only country where disruption and unease needs microscopic attention to identify local and regional economic inefficiencies!

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971

Johmson meets Juncker in Luxembourg

What is the progress and are there any alternatives?

Is is not clear what Prime Minister Boris Johnson is planning and he seems alarmingly obsessed with secrecy. From the start the European Union executives have been very consistent... 

Frustration in Europe is palpable because the United Kingdom is not communicating clearly with their European counterparts in Brussels!

Editors Comment:

During the early stages the British Conservative party moved a motion at Westminster to accept the outcome of the June 2016 referendum and failed to arrange crossparty talks  in the National Interest and could have considered the value of a Royal Commission.

Boris Johnson visits Jean Claude Juncker in Luxembourg. Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Edinburgh Legal ruling

The highest court of Scotland has ruled that proroguing of the UK parliament is unlawful. We now await the result of the case before the United Kingdom Supreme Court....

The Choice - It is entirely upto the British Government and Parliament to indicate the direction of travel. |More a.s.a.p.| 

Editor's comment

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971!

This BrExit decision and withdrawla agreement is taking far too long.... the UK's Exit without a deal has been protected and placed on the UK Statute book...It is not a guarantee that the European Commission and Parliament (EU27) will accept an extension without a new and practical British proposal or amendments to the withdrawal agreement ...

Apeldoorn Conference 2018

Anglo-Dutch Conference and other initiatives
Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971!

Political and International Objective(s) -  

Cross Reference - the Anglo Dutch Aperdoorn Trade conferences and active BeNeLux Union monitoring and institutional adaptability to international welfare issues.

As author of this and other correspondence I owe a duty of care to act entirely in accordance the constitutional oblgations, valid for citzens and emmigrants of the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

British Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies

The British referendum dated 23 June 2016 included Gibraltar. On balance of probability, the other 13 British Overseas Countries and Territories and the Crown Dependencies should have been allowed their own referendem with additional choices and local dialogue.

British Overseas Territories and Crown Dependencies discussed. Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971

Where do you stand?

There is far too much ill considered political rhetoric and only time will reveal the suttle stirring of common sense.

  Why not take your pick?   - being a critical euro sceptic adds value to constructive comment...

UK Government...

...the architect of self-harm?

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Britain's third unelected Prime Minister since 2007

  New BrExit Extension expires 31 October 2019  

  99 days and counting  

Mr Boris Johnson has been given leave to form a new administration. Consider8ng0 the numbers in parliament, the nee Prime Minis5er inherits a paper thin majority in the House of Commons at the Palace of Westminster.

The Micro Business Supply chains will be at the sharp end of any economic decline...

  Editor's Comment  
UK Economic and political planning has been mismanaged and I stress that Mrs Theresa May tried in every way possible to steer her Conservative party's noisy and divided opinion. Let's see if her successor can do any better without capsizing the Ship-of-State...

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Who will be Britain`s next Prime Minister?

~~

Is Britain ready for a new Conservative Prime Minister ? Who will Queen Elizabeth invite to form a new United Kingdom Government? - Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Buyer Beware - Caveat Emptor - On Thursday 25 July 2019 parliament will be in recess until 3rd September 2019 and there is also time set aside for the Party Political conference season.

Please Stand by

Wimbledon Ladies Final

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Serena Williams' shaky start in the 2019 Wimledon Ladies Final and quick result was a combination of skill, preparation and match fitness.

Mrs Theresa May resigns as Tory Leader

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971, including the structural errors and omissions caused by faulty wiring and poor government communication.

■■■
BrExit Cross Analysis and Observations, suspended from 29 March 2019 until 23 July 2019, pending the UK leadership election results for the British Conservatives and the British Liberal Democrats ■■■

Parliament..destination debate and/or Mrs May's resignation as Primus Inter Pares of the United Kingdom.

Brecon and Radnorshire recall petition

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since 1971.

Under the Recall of MPs Act 2015, the local MP's conviction triggered a recall petition. After receiving notice from the sentencing court, the Speaker of the House of Commons indicated on 24 April 2019 that he would be instructing the constituency's petition officer to begin the recall process.

By Election scheduled for 1 August 2019.

Editor's comment.

It is sad to note that the sitting MP and the local constituency party waited for the sentencing court's Recall Notice to the speaker and did not step aside  voluntarily.

Blog Suspended - Beyond Brexit

Aernout Fabius shares his knowledge and experience as a immigrant BeNeLux citizen and Tax Resident of the United Kingdom since September 1971.

■■■ Observations suspended 29 March 2019 ■■■, pending the UK Parliament's BrExit destination debate.